Twenty match weeks have passed by in the Premier League, which means we’re just past the halfway point of the action. Each team has 18 matches left to play, which means all of the relevant races—who avoids relegation, who secures a Champions League berth, and most importantly who tops the league—remain pretty wide open. Let’s take a look at those races for the second half of the season.
The Battle To Avoid Relegation
In the Premier League, the bottom three teams are automatically relegated to the Football League Championship for the following season. For some of the smaller clubs that get to compete in the EPL, staying in the top league is almost the equivalent of winning a title. Looking at the current league tables on ESPNFC, a number of teams will be involved in the fight to stay afloat.
The only club that currently looks to be a lock for relegation is Aston Villa, which simply hasn’t played up to the standard of an EPL team in 2015-16. With only a single win and eight total points through 20 matches, Aston Villa would need a miraculous turnaround to avoid dropping down at this point. Although, a few good weeks could conceivably help them catch up to their competition.
On the higher end of the relegation battle, the most interesting story of late is that defending champion Chelsea now appears to be safe. Once threatening to make history by going from winning a title to relegation in a single season, Chelsea has stabilized considerably since the sacking of José Mourinho. Also, as noted in the Premier League coverage at Betfair, the Blues now appear to be a strong candidate for short-term gains. They’re not going anywhere in the context of the season as a whole, but from week-to-week they look like a winning soccer team again. Three cheers for the Blues.
That leaves five clubs (in between Aston Villa and Chelsea at the moment) that appear likely to battle to avoid the other two relegation slots. Sunderland, Newcastle United, Swansea City, Bournemouth, and Norwich City are all candidates, with Sunderland and Newcastle in position to be relegated if the season were to end today.
The Fight For Champions League Placement
Rest assured, if Chelsea wins a few more consecutive matches, you’ll begin to see articles speculating that they could skyrocket all the way to the top-four and fight their way into next season’s Champions League. Don’t listen, because they almost certainly cannot. More realistically, every club with fewer than 30 points through 20 matches is a serious long shot to finish in the top-four, which places Southampton, West Brom, Everton, Stoke City, and Watford, along with Chelsea, in a no-risk/no-reward middle ground.
That leaves eight teams with a reasonable chance of finishing in the top four and qualifying for Champions League contention (with the fourth place team headed to a playoff with a chance to reach the UCL, and the fifth place team headed straight to the Europa League). Currently Liverpool, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Manchester United are on the outside looking in, with Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City, Leicester City, and Arsenal in the top-four spots.
The way the season has gone, it’s rather difficult to imagine those top three giving enough ground to lose their spots, though their actual leads in the point totals are far from commanding. But the two teams that will be fascinating to watch are the two outsiders with the biggest names: Man United and Liverpool are well within striking distance of qualification and hungry to return to European prominence. Liverpool in particular looks very interesting. All the way back in October, an article in the Standard predicted that they’d reach the top-four with new coach Jurgen Klopp in charge. Now with two wins in three matches, including a victory over Leicester City, Liverpool may be finding a groove that could prove that article prophetic.
Championship Contention
Theoretically most of the clubs in the mix for Champions League qualification also have a shot at the domestic title. But the way the season’s gone so far it’s getting increasingly difficult to imagine anyone but one of the current top three teams pulling off the feat. And that sets up some extremely interesting scenarios.
On the one hand, there’s the possibility that Manchester City wins out with pure consistency, having won two of the past three titles and shared “class of the EPL” status with Chelsea. This is kind of the boring outcome for neutral fans, but it’s worth noting that the outcome could be fairly ordinary in what’s seemed like a bizarre season.
On the other hand, Arsenal seems to be in great shape to win its first domestic title since 2003-04, which would thrill droves of Gunners supporters around the world. For what it’s wroth, Thierry Henry (who starred for that 03-04 team) believes this is Arsenal’s year, and he said so before the team took over first place with halfway to go. Arsenal’s had a bit of a reputation for shying away from the biggest moments in recent years, but this team appears poised to pull it off.
And then there’s the fairy tale outcome: a Leicester City championship. The club that fought to stave off relegation for much of 2014-15 is looking to reshape the narrative of what’s possible in the EPL, trumping bigger and better teams to win one for the little guy, so to speak. They haven’t looked quite as sharp lately as they did early on, but they’re still in the mix.
Any way you cut it, the next few months of action should be exciting. Our only job, as always, is to sit back and enjoy the ride.